Poten's Weekly Opinion: No Quick Fix

May 20 2021


The tanker market is out of balance.

Tanker market pundits seem to be in either one of two camps. The optimists foresee a rapid recovery of rates in the second half of 2021, driven by post-Covid demand recovery, while the pessimists don’t see any recovery before 2022 or even 2023. The main argument of the pessimists is the overcapacity in the tanker market. Everybody agrees that the tanker market will recover, it is cyclical after all, but people disagree on the timing.

 

In this weeks’ Tanker Opinion, we will take a look at the developments in ton-mile demand for crude oil tankers from Q1 2019 until Q1 2021. We will compare this to the changes in the fleet size over the same period to see if we can explain the current rate environment and shed some light on the timing of the recovery in the crude tanker market.

 

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