Tankers to peak around 2030 - DNV GL

Sep 14 2018

At a presentation in London this week, DNV GL - Maritime unveiled its second ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report, part of a trilogy of Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) reports.

The report looks at the maritime energy future and examines how the energy transition will affect the shipping industry.


“The energy transition is undeniable,” said Remi Eriksen, DNV GL Group President and CEO. “Last year, more gigawatts of renewable energy were added than those from fossil fuels and this is reflected in where lenders are putting their money.”


Following on from the 2017 report, the new Maritime Forecast to 2050 focuses on the challenges of de-carbonising the shipping industry. It examines recent changes in shipping activity and fuel consumption, future developments in the types and levels of cargoes transported, and future regulations, fuels and technology drivers.


“De-carbonisation will be one of the megatrends that will shape the maritime industry over the next decades, especially in light of the new IMO greenhouse gas strategy,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO DNV GL – Maritime. “Combined with the current and future trends in technology and regulations, this means that investment decisions should be examined through a new lens. Therefore, we propose a ‘carbon robust’ approach, which looks at future CO2 regulations and requirements and emphasises flexibility, safety, and long term competitiveness. With this new framework, we hope to help empower robust decision making on assets.”


The 2018 Forecast develops the ‘carbon robust’ ship concept further with a new model that evaluates fuel and technology options by comparing the break-even costs of a design to that of the competing fleet of ships. This aims to support maritime stakeholders in evaluating the long-term competitiveness of their vessels and fleet and to future-proof their assets.


A case study utilizing the model in several vessel designs reveals some striking findings, including that investing in energy efficiency and reduced carbon footprint beyond existing standards can increase the competitiveness of a vessel over its lifetime. The study also suggests that owners of high-emitting vessels could be exposed to significant market risks in 2030 and 2040.


The Maritime Forecast predicts a rise of nearly a third (32%) in seaborne-trade measured in tonne/miles for 2016–2030, but only 5% growth during the period 2030–2050.


As for tankers, the crude oil fleet is forecast to decline by 30% by the middle of this century, peaking in 2030 at around 20% larger than today, while today’s products tanker fleet will decrease by about 8% by 2050.


Oil demand is set to peak in the 2020s and then decline as vehicle electrification speeds up. Manufacturing demand for oil, including feedstock will peak in the late 2020s. China’s consumption will continue to grow peaking around 2030, followed somewhat later by India. 


The world’s crude oil seaborne trade was 1.95 bill tonnes per year in 2016, which is expected to grow to 2.28 bill tonnes by 2030 only to fall back to 1.85 bill tonnes by 2040 and 1.27 bill tonnes per year by 2050. 


Oil products’ seaborne trade amounted to 1.07 bill tonnes per year in 2016. This is forecast to rise to 1.32 bill tonnes by 2030, 1.25 bill tonnes by 2040 and falling to 1.02 bill tonnes per year by 2050.


Crude oil tonne/miles follows a similar pattern with 9.58 trill recorded in 2016, 11.38 triill forecast for 2030, declining to 9.6 trill by 2040 and 6.57 triill by 2050. As for products, tonne/miles was 3.04 trill in 2016 and the expectations are for 3.76 trill by 2030, 3.5 trill in 2040 and 2.8 trill by 2050.


The world’s seaborne crude tanker trade growth in terms of tonnage was 0.7% during the period 2010-2016, which will rise to 1.1% during the period 2016-2030 and then falling by 2.9% between 2030 and 2050.  


Oil products showed a growth rate in tonnage terms of 3.3% between 2010 and 2016, which will drop to 1.5% between 2016 and 2030 and a negative 1.3% between 2030 and 2050.


At the presentation, Teekay Offshore’s Ingvild Saether said that the company had recently made an $80 mill investment in shuttle tankers so she was confident of the future to 2040.


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