Markets - Waiting for September’s cargo programme

Aug 21 2019


After a busy previous, week the VLCC activity slowed last week, whilst waiting for the September MEG programme to be confirmed.

However, being in the twilight zone between monthly programmes is unlikely to cause much suffering, with bunkers costs softening and decent TCE’s returns at $30,000 per day or above to be had, reports Fearnleys.

There was some evidence of profit taking for a date advantage, but there little change in sentiment.

Where possible, charterers were still targeting the older and/or restricted types, which settled at the very high W40s for MEG/East cargoes, while modern ships commanded rates in the low to mid W50s.

Overall it was a holding pattern last week, but Fearnleys expected charterers to get moving on September cargoes as soon as they can. A firm foundation and a tighter than normal position list could well see further improvements once this programme gets underway in earnest.

For Suezmaxes, decent activity was seen in all markets recently. The tonnage count in the Atlantic looked better but there is still an overhang of tonnage preventing the rates from moving anywhere.

The start of last week was slow, and more activity was needed to put owners in a better position going into this week.

In the MEG, the market remained stable. The 30-day tonnage count remained steady last week at just above 100 ships, and owners were getting around $18-$19,000 per day for a round-trip MEG/Singapore on a modern eco-ship.

The Aframax market in the Baltic and Continent moved sideways last week, with benchmark routes, such as TD7 and TD17 flattening out at WS85 and WS55, respectively.

Over the week cargoes continued to be fixed at steady rates off market, but as September dates become closer, the window is expected to tighten and the market to take a small upward correction.

Much to owners dissatisfaction, the Mediterranean and Black Sea also saw yet another quiet week with plenty of prompt open ships waiting for employment. TD19 stood at WS72.5 all week.

On a positive note, the broker noted a slight increase of activity in the middle of last week, and combined with the current market levels being widely perceived as rock bottom, owners were becoming optimistic, as the September cargo programme approaches, Fearnleys said.

As for the period market, Alibra Shipping said last week was busy for VLCCs, resulting in a firming market in line with the spot fixtures, as refinery maintenance periods came to an end.

However, the clean sector was quiet with only a few period fixtures reported last week. However, healthy MR demand was expected after the holiday period, the broker said.

Oil prices rose last week on the back of the US announcing a delay in imposing 10% tariffs on certain Chinese goods, allaying concerns over a trade war, Aliba said.

Meanwhile, the world’s largest tanker is reportedly on a 12,400-mile voyage to a fuel-storage zone in Asia.

The 440,000 dwt ULCC ‘Oceania’ is due to arrive at Sungai Linggi in Malaysia at the end of September, according to recent signals picked up from the vessel.

Although owner Euronav has refused to comment thus far, the company did say it would hold a briefing on 5th September.

Elsewhere, the US continues to ramp up its Gulf coast ports to export more crude.

For example, Trafigura Trading announced that it has started crude oil shipments from the Permian Basin to the Corpus Christi/Ingleside, Texas area via the newly opened Cactus II Pipeline system.

This activity is underpinned by a significant long-term volume commitment announced by Trafigura in early 2018 and represents the initial commercial service of Cactus II, with its deliveries connecting to a waterborne export service to Europe and beyond.

“Trafigura is at the forefront of connecting the American barrel to the global market,” said Kevin Jebbitt, Trafigura’s Head of Crude Trading. “Thanks to our worldwide network, we can demonstrate to US producers a unique ability to place barrels with end customers around the world, from the Mediterranean to the Far East. WTI is fast becoming a global benchmark again, having shown its relevance to the physical markets.”

Cactus II Pipeline will have the ability to handle 670,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

San Antonio pipeline operator NuStar Energy has also received the first shipment of Permian Basin crude oil at the company's Corpus Christi export terminal.

NuStar recently completed work connecting its Corpus Christi North Beach Export Terminal to Cactus II.

The company said it is working to connect the export terminal to two more Permian Basin to Corpus Christi pipelines that are still under construction.

"We are excited to have these connections completed and we are even more excited that we will soon be the first in the Port of Corpus Christi to export these barrels transported to South Texas via one of three large Permian long-haul pipeline projects," NuStar CEO Brad Barron said.

This pipeline becomes operational at a time when the Port of Corpus Christi is widening and deepening the ship channel and the South Texas waterway is expected to become the US largest crude oil export hub within the next five years.

NuStar has four berths at the company's Corpus Christi North Beach Export Terminal, two of which can accommodate Suezmaxes.

DHT Holdings,has confirmed that it had agreed a three-year timecharter with a leading refining company for a 2012-built VLCC that is set to commence after the fitting of a scrubber in the fourth quarter this year.

The timecharter has a base rate of $30,000 per day with all earnings up to $37,500 to DHT, following a profit sharing structure that includes scrubber economics for earnings in excess to be shared between the customer and DHT.

 



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