Many researchers and analysts start the new year with a forecast of what will happen in the markets. This is a very dangerous thing to do; just look at the last three years. Nobody forecasted Covid-19 and – apart from a few Kremlin insiders – the Russian invasion of Ukraine was also totally unexpected. Both events caused significant personal losses and had a massive impact on the global economy, the energy markets and the tanker market. With the ongoing war in Europe, the threat of a global recession and heightened geopolitical tension in Asia, the developments in 2023 are equally uncertain, even without considering that there may be future black swan events.