Some sources said that they are already lower than under previous sanctions in 2012, Gibson Shipbrokers said in a report.
As such, the policy to stop Iran exporting crude seems to have had the desired effect. However, attempting to track any Iranian vessel movements has become very challenging,as most tankers have switched off their AIS transponders.
Statistics from Kpler showed that Iran loaded for export over 0.8 mill barrels per day in May, down from over 1.2 mill in April. Previously, most of the country’s crude was shipped to China.
The commodity tracking company reported that over 900,000 barrels per day was discharged in China in April but just 330,000 barrels were unloaded in May, as sanctions came into effect.However, these are just the statistics that are known and one can make a reasonable assumption due to vessel tracking, Gibson explained.
The latest AIS data showed that about 33 Iranian VLCCs have their AIS trackers switched off, a massive increase from just 12 units in April, just before the expiry of the US waiver programme.
The vessels with their transponders off could be just sitting idle or involved in storage or may well be trading. On a few occasions in the past, Gibson has observed NITC tankers offloading their cargoes via STS transfers. However, as US ups the pressure to block Iranian crude trade, it is highly likely that Iranian tanker floating storage is on a rise.
Others share a similar view. Argus Media recently estimated that floating storage jumped from 7 mill barrels to 20 mill barrels last month.Generally, an increase in floating storage is a positive development for the tanker market. However, Iranian crude trade is a closed market, with the NITC tankers shipping only Iranian crude and absent from the international trade.
Beyond current trade issues with Iran, the latest tanker incidents in the Gulf of Oman took centre stage not only amongst those in the shipping community, but internationally,putting the world on alert about possible supply disruptions coming out of the Middle East.
Speculation is running high that tensions between Iran and US could rise further after the US Administration again pointed the finger at Iran for the alleged attacks. Reuters reported last week that two prominent tanker owners said that they will not take any bookings for the time being for vessels loading in the Middle East Gulf, Gibson said.